Craving Reliability in an Unreliable World

There was a time when life had a rhythm and a structure that provided a sense of stability. New automobile models from major manufacturers debuted in the fall, coinciding with the fresh lineup of television shows for the next year. Political campaigns had defined seasons, unlike the perpetual, endless cycles we see today. People consumed news in predictable doses – morning or evening newspapers and the 6 o’clock broadcast. Then came 1980, along with CNN’s 24-hour news cycle. 

I like a fast pace. I like action. But over the past few decades, the world has been accelerating toward a state of constant stimulation, creating a culture of immediacy, anxiety, and FOMO (fear of missing out).

The erosion of reliability and dependability – qualities that once defined institutions, businesses, and even personal relationships – has led to a more volatile society. When everything is in flux, from how we consume news to how governments operate, uncertainty becomes the norm. The modern political climate, typified by Mark Zuckerberg’s ethos of a “move fast and break things” mentality, exacerbates this instability, making it difficult to trust that the systems designed to serve us will endure.

The Cost of Constant Change

At the heart of reliability is consistency. Toyota outpaced U.S. stalwarts not merely by selling cars but by building its reputation on reliability. McDonald’s expanded nationwide and globally because customers always knew what to expect – a dependable product that felt familiar. Similarly, FedEx built an empire on the promise of guaranteed delivery times, reinforcing the idea that businesses thrive when they prioritize reliability over disruption.

Contrast this with today’s landscape: streaming services release entire seasons at once, disrupting the traditional weekly anticipation of new episodes. The news cycle refreshes every second, rendering yesterday’s headlines irrelevant before they can be fully processed. In politics, policies and positions can shift overnight, with leaders reversing their stances as quickly as a spreading rumor or a social media trend. This constant churn creates instability and fosters a culture where nothing feels secure.

However, this doesn't mean that change is inherently negative. Adaptation is essential for growth, and businesses, governments, and individuals must evolve in response to new realities. The key lies in understanding when and how to change in a way that preserves trust and stability. JCPenney serves as a cautionary example of how abrupt, poorly executed changes can backfire. In 2011, CEO Ron Johnson aimed to revitalize the department store by eliminating sales and discounts in favor of everyday low prices. Although his intention was to modernize the brand, the drastic shift alienated loyal customers who were accustomed to bargain hunting. The outcome was a significant decline in sales and consumer trust. This example demonstrates that while change is often necessary, it must be managed carefully to ensure it aligns with customer expectations and core brand values.

The Psychological Toll of Instability

Stability is not merely a luxury; it is essential for mental well-being. When individuals know they can depend on certain structures, it eases stress and anxiety. Now, work emails arrive at all hours, and the expectation for immediate responses intensifies burnout. The line between personal and professional life has become blurred, making it difficult to truly disconnect.

In the political arena, the unpredictability of governance has heightened public anxiety. Legislative norms that once ensured steady, incremental change have been abandoned in favor of radical shifts. The chaotic management of Twitter (now X) following Elon Musk’s acquisition illustrates the dangers of impulsive, reactionary decision-making. Abrupt mass layoffs, policy reversals, and inconsistent enforcement of rules have created an unstable platform where neither users nor advertisers know what to expect. Similarly, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), influenced by Musk, has eliminated government jobs without a clear long-term strategy, leading to service disruptions in crucial areas such as veterans’ affairs and nuclear security. This instability erodes public trust and intensifies societal stress.

The recent trend of dismantling policies without clear replacement strategies – whether in healthcare, environmental protections, or economic regulations – erodes confidence in institutions. People question whether today’s rules will still apply tomorrow, making long-term planning nearly impossible. The whipsaw of on-again, off-again tariffs, for example, has thrown the global economy into turmoil.

The Importance of Dependability in Leadership and Institutions

Strong societies rely on dependable leadership. The most outstanding leaders – from Franklin D. Roosevelt to Angela Merkel—are remembered not for their flashiness but for their steady hands during turbulent times. Their decisions instilled confidence because they were predictable and rooted in principles rather than short-term expediency.

An article titled “The Surprising Trait Google Looks For To Identify Potential Leaders” by Walter Chen emphasizes a similar principle in business. Chen states, “At Google, they're obsessive about looking at data to determine what makes employees successful, and what they found in the numbers was surprising. The most important character trait of a leader is one that you're more likely to associate with a dull person than a dynamic leader: predictability. The more predictable you are, day after day, the better.” Leaders who are erratic or reactionary create uncertainty, which ultimately undermines efficiency and morale.

In business, companies that uphold their commitment to quality and service withstand the test of time. Apple’s focus on long-term reliability in its products has cultivated a loyal customer base. Their ecosystem strategy ensures that devices work together seamlessly, reinforcing consumer trust.

Reclaiming Reliability in an Unstable World

To counter the chaos, we must collectively re-emphasize the importance of dependability. Businesses should prioritize consistent service, and governments should support measured, sustainable reforms instead of reactionary changes. Individuals can foster reliability in their lives by following through on their commitments, maintaining integrity, and building trust within their communities.

The world may never return to the slower pace of the past, but that doesn’t mean we have to accept unpredictability as the new standard. Stability is not a relic; it’s a choice. In an era marked by constant disruption, the ability to offer reliability and dependability is more valuable than ever.

Nuance Is Out – It Needs to Come Back

The Rise of Binary Thinking in Public Discourse

In today’s world, nuance is rapidly disappearing. Politics, media, and public debate have become dominated by black-or-white, yes-or-no thinking and communication. Leaders and decision-makers no longer have patience for complexity; instead, they opt for sweeping, sometimes incendiary language that may look decisive but often creates more harm than good.

The consequences of this shift can be seen in political rhetoric, media coverage, corporate decision-making, and public policy. From government leaders passing policies without considering long-term effects to social media reducing issues to simplistic slogans, the ability to grapple with complexity has all but vanished.

This lack of nuance is not just frustrating – it’s dangerous. It leads to policies, leadership decisions, and public conversations that fail to acknowledge the full scope of reality. It’s time to examine why nuance has fallen out of favor and how we can restore it before losing our ability to think and communicate critically altogether.

How Media and Politics Reward Oversimplification

One of the biggest drivers of binary thinking is the modern media landscape. The 24-hour news cycle and social media algorithms can prioritize engagement over accuracy, meaning the most extreme, emotionally charged language gets the most attention.

Consider the recent coverage of the White House’s decision to suspend all federal grants and loan disbursements. While some outlets reported the White House’s justification – that the move was necessary to prevent public funding of “wokeness” and programs it deemed wasteful – others highlighted concerns from critics who labeled it an unconstitutional overreach that would undermine essential programs. The framing of the issue quickly devolved into a polarized debate – either a bold crackdown or a reckless assault on public funding—rather than an analysis of the policy’s mechanics, trade-offs, or potential compromises. Few discussions examined the long-term implications or the specific programs affected, reducing the conversation to partisan conflict instead of policy substance.

Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky's research on cognitive biases helps explain another factor contributing to this mindset. People naturally prefer certainty over ambiguity. Instead, they want to avoid wrestling with complexity and seek quick, straightforward answers. Media outlets and politicians exploit this tendency by simplifying issues into a good versus evil narrative, where one side is entirely right, and the other is completely wrong.

Musk’s NIH Overhaul: A Case Study in Oversimplification

An example of the dangers of eliminating nuance in decision-making is Elon Musk’s attempt to restructure the National Institutes of Health (NIH). Musk, known for his aggressive and combative leadership style, took a “wood chipper” to the indirect research costs paid to grant recipients. 

Instead of carefully studying potential reform measures, he slashed funding, jeopardizing ongoing and future studies and the employment of scientists, medical researchers, and support staff across the country. His goal was to make the NIH more efficient. However, his approach ignored the social contract between the government and universities and the complexity of biomedical research, which often requires long-term investment rather than immediate results.

The result? Chaos. 

Many critical NIH programs were abruptly halted, scientists scrambled for new funding, and even private-sector partners expressed concern about the long-term impact on medical innovation. What Musk framed as a bold, decisive move was an oversimplified gutting of an institution whose work does not fit neatly into a profit-driven model. (See my article, Running Government Like a Business? Think Again.)

This is the kind of false clarity that dominates leadership today. Instead of making thoughtful, informed adjustments, leaders increasingly favor sweeping, disruptive action – a “move fast and break things” approach that disregards complexity.

The Death of Complexity in Public Policy

This problem is not unique to Musk. Across government and business, leaders are rejecting incremental progress in favor of dramatic, attention-grabbing moves.

Consider Donald Trump’s recent tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China. These tariffs were presented as a decisive strategy to pressure foreign governments on immigration, illegal drugs, and trade issues. However, the reality was far more complex – retaliatory tariffs from Canada and Mexico, disruptions to supply chains, and an absence of clear benchmarks for success. Instead of tackling the root causes of economic and immigration challenges, the tariffs acted as a symbolic, high-impact maneuver with uncertain long-term effects. This type of performative, surface-level decision-making creates the illusion of action while failing to address the underlying issues.

How to Elevate the Conversation

If I weren’t such an optimist, I’d say we’re too far gone – too many people are invested in and profiting from the current state, where crude, simplistic messages persuade individuals to act against their self-interest and undermine democracy. We must find ways to elevate how we communicate and interact to restore civility and evidence-based decision-making. This will require a declaration of the need for change and a commitment from various stakeholders to a range of efforts over an extended period. Here are a few key steps communicators, policymakers, and business leaders can take:

1. Encourage Complexity in Public Discussions. Rather than presenting false binaries, leaders and the communicators who advise them should emphasize educating the public about trade-offs and long-term consequences.
2. Prioritize Incremental Change Over Blunt Action. Policy and decision-makers should recognize that big problems require thoughtful, long-term solutions.
3. Acknowledge That Emotional Appeals Can Oversimplify Issues. Emotions are a powerful tool in communication, but they can be even more effective when combined with rational analysis. Journalists and communicators must counter the clickbait, outrage-driven news model.
4. Teach Critical Thinking and Media Literacy. The public needs better tools to recognize when issues are being flattened into false binaries. This process should begin early by teaching students how to evaluate sources, recognize biases, and engage with complexity.

Nuance is fading because it’s tougher to sell, more challenging to explain, and harder to act upon. Additionally, it requires time. In a world where leaders seek quick results, the media wants engagement, and the public craves certainty, complexity has become an inconvenience. However, the cost of ignoring nuance is massive. If we want better leadership, policies, and public discourse, we must resist the urge for quick, flashy, or frenzied explanations and responses. We must embrace complexity, acknowledge trade-offs, and have the patience to address issues with the depth they deserve.

Running Government Like a Business? Think Again.

Hearing corporate leaders say, “The government should operate like a business," isn’t new, but the slogan has gained new significance with Elon Musk and Donald Trump promoting aggressive reforms. Now, Silicon Valley’s "move fast and break things" mentality has taken hold. While these statements may resonate with those frustrated by bureaucratic inefficiencies, enacting such approaches can lead to significant challenges and serious unintended consequences.

The Pitfalls of "Move Fast and Break Things"

Using the blunt instrument of mass terminations and freezing previously approved funding suggests that rapidly dismantling existing structures and addressing issues as they arise is an effective strategy. We’re being told that embracing a "fail fast" mentality – where rapid iteration and acceptance of failure contribute to innovation – is the solution to fixing a bloated government. However, this approach can lead to chaos and instability, particularly within complex systems like government. Interruptions in government services and commitments can cause widespread and severe hardships, affecting millions of lives and national stability. 

Musk, appointed (not vetted or confirmed) to lead the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), has launched swift and widespread cuts to the federal workforce. (Fearing a legal battle over challenges to Musk’s authority, on Feb. 18, White House official Joshua Fisher stated, “Mr. Musk is not the U.S. DOGE Service Administrator.”) In a recent press conference, Musk described federal employees as an "unelected" branch of government and defended DOGE's secretive operations. These actions have led to the termination of nearly 85,000 government workers – about 3% of America's 2.3 million civil servants – crippling essential services like veterans affairs, nuclear security, and tax administration. Critics argue that these cuts vilify dedicated civil servants and undermine the government’s ability to fund essential services, support public health, and fund vital research.

The aggressive downsizing has elevated national security risks. Musk’s influence now extends to critical government IT infrastructures managed by a wide range of government departments, raising concerns about the integrity and security of federal systems. Despite court orders and numerous warnings about insider threats posed by Musk’s appointees, enforcement remains uncertain, leaving essential government functions vulnerable.

Why the Government Shouldn't Run Like a Business

The idea that the government should function like a business is a common refrain among some business leaders. However, this viewpoint overlooks essential differences between public governance and private enterprise.

In his book Time to Get Tough, Donald Trump asserts that business experience can translate into governmental success, suggesting that corporate strategies can effectively address governmental challenges.

However, governments are designed to serve the public interest. They address issues that are not always profitable but are essential for societal well-being, such as public safety, education, and infrastructure. Applying business principles focused on profit and efficiency can undermine these essential services.

Furthermore, businesses operate under different accountability structures. While a company answers to its shareholders, a government is accountable to its citizens, requiring transparency, equity, and adherence to democratic processes. DOGE's sweeping budget cuts and agency closures have already sparked legal battles, with opponents arguing that such actions bypass congressional oversight and erode democratic checks and balances.

The Founding Fathers warned against rash governmental overhauls. James Madison, in The Federalist Papers, cautioned: "The instability, injustice, and confusion introduced into the public councils have, in truth, been the mortal diseases under which popular governments have everywhere perished." Madison argued that a well-functioning government requires careful deliberation rather than reckless disruption.

When one of his rockets blows up, Musk refers to it as a “rapid unscheduled disassembly.” We’re witnessing the government being blown apart and disassembled right now, right before our eyes, to the dismay of millions of Americans and to the delight of our adversaries.

Reframing the Message in the Fight for Research Funding

In the push to increase “government efficiency,” many of our elected—and unelected—leaders are equating cuts with savings. In the case of research, they could not be more mistaken, and it will cost us dearly.

The United States has long been a global leader in biomedical and technological innovation, a position driven by significant federal investments in research and development. However, under the new Administration, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) recently announced a policy that caps indirect cost rates at 15% for all grants. If the court challenges fail, the new rule will replace previously negotiated rates, which often ranged from 25% to over 50%, with some institutions, such as Harvard University, having rates as high as 69%. 

Indirect costs, essential for maintaining research infrastructure, staffing, and resources, are not simply bureaucratic expenses; they form the backbone of America’s innovation ecosystem. Dr. Richard Huganir, the director of the Department of Neuroscience at Johns Hopkins University, characterized the cuts as "the apocalypse of American science," warning that they could lead to job losses and hinder future scientific discoveries. If we permit the gutting of the NIH and other scientific agencies, we risk falling behind in the global innovation race.

America’s leadership in science and medicine has never been an accident; it’s the result of decades of investment in research and innovation. Cutting funding under the pretext of fiscal responsibility is not only shortsighted but also economically and strategically self-destructive.

A Quick Look at a Few Facts

There are piles of data about the positive impact of basic and translational research. They include:

• Science Drives Economic Growth and Job Creation. The Human Genome Project, for example, had a $141 return for every $1 invested, contributing nearly $1 trillion to the economy and laying the foundation for modern genomics-based medicine.

• National Security Depends on Scientific Leadership. Research in biotechnology, cybersecurity, and quantum computing is critical to maintaining military and economic dominance. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) funded the early development of the internet, GPS, and artificial intelligence—technologies that now underpin both commercial and defense industries.

• China Is Significantly Increasing its R&D Expenditure. It is on pace to surpass the U.S. in R&D spending, with China’s global share rising by 22% and the U.S. share declining by 8% from 2000 to 2023.

• Cutting Research Costs More in the Long Run. One of the most misguided assumptions about cutting science funding is that it will reduce government spending. In reality, preventative research saves billions in healthcare and emergency response costs. CDC data show vaccination programs save $10 for every $1 invested by preventing costly hospitalizations and lost productivity.

• Science Funding Benefits Every State and District. Science funding isn’t a partisan issue—it benefits communities across the country. NIH and NSF grants support universities, hospitals, and biotech firms in both urban and rural districts, creating high-paying jobs and fostering innovation hubs.

Science funding used to enjoy broad bipartisan support. Even prominent conservative voices have recognized the value of research funding. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich once called cutting medical research “irrational conservatism,” emphasizing that funding the NIH is one of the best ways to reduce long-term healthcare costs and improve national well-being.

Reframing the Debate

What should be determined by hard facts is now challenged by personal beliefs. Hyper-partisanship has widened divisions and built barriers to the point where facts matter less and opinions matter more. Maybe it’s time for a new approach.

Cognitive linguist George Lakoff emphasizes the power of framing in shaping public perception. He argues that how issues are presented dramatically influences how they are understood and acted upon. So, here’s a thought:

Instead of discussing science funding as government "spending," we should frame it as an investment in America's future—one that brings substantial economic, security, and health benefits. We could begin with messaging around:

• Public-Private Partnerships: Numerous biotech startups and Fortune 500 companies depend on federally funded research to catalyze innovation and create value.

• Fiscal Responsibility: Preventative research saves taxpayer dollars by reducing emergency healthcare costs and economic losses from preventable diseases.

• Global Competitiveness: Investing in research ensures the U.S. remains a leader in medical and technological advancements rather than ceding ground to China or other competitors.

Moving from Messaging to Mobilizing

With federal research funding at risk, advocacy must move beyond words to action. Scientists, healthcare professionals, business leaders, and the public all have a role to play in ensuring continued investment in innovation, economic growth, and public health. Here are a few ways you can get involved:

1. Engage with Policymakers: Lawmakers respond to constituent concerns, so make your voice heard. Contact your representatives—especially those on the House and Senate Appropriations Committees—to emphasize the economic, national security, and health benefits of research funding.

• Find your House representative: house.gov
• Find your Senators: senate.gov
• See who serves on the House Appropriations Committee 
• See who serves on the Senate Appropriations Committee

2. Participate in Science Advocacy Groups: Organizations dedicated to research advocacy offer resources, coordinated campaigns, and direct lobbying opportunities.

• American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
• Research!America
• Coalition for Life Sciences (CLS)

3. Share Your Stories: Public awareness can influence policymaker decisions. If you have stories to share, use social media, blogs, or community forums to highlight how research funding impacts patients, businesses, and scientific progress. Add hashtags like #FundScience, #ResearchMatters, and #InvestInInnovation to amplify your message.

4. Attend Town Halls and Public Meetings: Legislators frequently hold town halls—either in person or online—to engage with constituents. Participating in these events and posing relevant questions about research funding can encourage them to prioritize science in budget conversations. Check the dates and times through the offices of your elected officials.

Leaders and policymakers who genuinely care about America’s health, global competitiveness, national security, and long-term economic stability should regard science funding not as a cost, but as one of the most powerful investments we can make for our future.